Two weeks ago, if you told me Ukraine would still be resisting the Russian invasion and Zelensky would still be alive, I'd have laughed in your face. In fairness, I laughed at the prospect of an invasion of this scale up until the morning of February 24th. The idea was simply too stupid across every dimension - tactically, strategically, and politically. I like to think I've so far been vindicated on that analysis, the Russian tactics of shock and awe have stupidly abandoned any sense of modern logistics and led to a whole new genre of internet video: tank theft! Strategically, Putin has stupidly reinvigorated NATO and even inspired Germany to start arming itself again. And politically, this has galvanized the once waning opposition movement within Russia, to say nothing of how it's compromised Vova's position among his fellow siloviki in the Kremlin.
It was all so obviously stupid from the start. And it happened anyway.
And
while how it's been happening has been even more of a surprise, how it
ends still looks written in stone. A Russian military victory, followed
by occupation and insurgency. Putin's very own Iraq quagmire, right on
the border and fed by NATO weapons shipments. Hundreds of thousands
dead, a nuclear superpower destabilized for a generation, and Ukraine a
breeding ground for all the worst sorts of throat-slitters.
Though
you wouldn't think it, to judge by every anglophone corner of the
internet. Between r/worldnews and Facebook memes, there is a popular
certainty Russia is losing the war and will soon be driven from the
Ukrainian plains, to allow the sacred sunflowers to grow. Or something.
While the conspiratorial may be inclined to see this total domination of
the propaganda space to be the works of some three-letter-agency, I
think it's genuinely organic. Millions of people throwing moral support
to Ukrainians, who despite the sins of the Azov Battalion really are
defending their homes from an aggressive invasion. Much like Iraqis or
Afghans or Vietnamese or Yemenis or...
And it
helps the blue and gold flag memes that Russia's performance - so far -
has been so blitheringly incompetent. Michael Kofman, one of the few
commentators to have predicted war, has gone on numerous social media
threads about both logistical failures and the bizarre way Russia has
abandoned their own combined arms doctrine, opting for slap-dash
"special ops" zipping in, getting overstretched, and either captured or
killed by even Ukrainian militia. Russian soldier morale, already not
the highest among armies, has reportedly been sinking faster than the
ruble. The way things look - the way they're made to look - is Ukraine
only needs to hold out through another week or two of bombardments until
either mass desertion renders Russian forces combat ineffective or
Vova suffers a palace coup by generals upset that even their own are
dying in this stupid war.
Serious question:
when was the last time an American General died in battle? I can't
think of any since the Civil War - maybe, since Confederates don't
count.
A lesson everyone should have learned
from Syria is light infantry craft matters. The Kurdish YPG demonstrated
this over and over against Islamic State. Ukrainian regular military and militia have demonstrated it over and over again. But light infantry can only do so much against heavy armor, especially when Russia can afford to keep throwing men and material into the Ukraine meatgrinder. For all their bravery, a Ukraine that doesn't reach some ceasefire deal with the invaders is looking at the decimation of Kyiv (which might be happening as you read this) followed by an occupation and insurgency.
Here's
how an insurgency works: think about everyone in your entire extended
family. All of them, from the old yia-yias to the bouncing new babies to
the middle-aged failures. Now kill two thirds of them. Of those, a third
died bad. Like basement and power drill bad. In exchange, you maybe get
the occupiers to back off for a while. In rare cases, the occupiers
leave because the political situation among their bosses no longer
allows for the costs of the occupation. That usually takes a few changes
in the political leadership or maybe a new generation reaching age of
majority. Also, for this thought experiment, you are not one of the
guerillas. You just live in the occupied territory. The guerrillas lose
more.
A bad deal for Ukraine. And every neighboring country. And it's the big plan inside the Beltway:
The ways that Western countries would support a Ukrainian resistance are beginning to take shape. Officials have been reluctant to discuss detailed plans, since they’re premised on a Russian military victory that, however likely, hasn’t happened yet. But as a first step, Ukraine’s allies are planning for how to help establish and support a government-in-exile, which could direct guerrilla operations against Russian occupiers, according to several U.S. and European officials.
NATO will not engage Russia directly. Which is a good thing, no matter how many schools and hospitals get shelled into rubble. But NATO will keep an unconventional war simmering in occupied Ukraine, nominally to bleed Russia, but also empowering the worst factions within Ukraine. Thoughtful, democratic types make for poor guerillas and Langley never arms Marxist rebels no matter who they're fighting. All this proposed support is going to the Azov Battalion and fellow travelers, because arming the Afghan Mujahideen worked out so well.
Except now, the Great Powers quagmire with militant reactionaries is in the middle of "civilized" Europe. The blowback coming from Putin's stupid war is going to make Paris 2015 look like harsh language.
